Berman, Paul. “Welcome to Phase Three of the Arab Spring: Islamists are Waning in the Arab World. But will Obama Notice?” New Republic, 22 February 2013.
Berman compares the Muslim Brotherhood’s post-revolutionary stance in Egypt to its counterpart in Tunisia. The Brotherhood in Egypt has proven less politically savvy than has been the case in Tunisia. This is borne out by the riots and demonstrations that have exploded in Cairo in the wake of the controversial constitution, which was introduced to the Egyptian public in December 2012. Some Egyptian observers have noted that initial promises from Washington to support democratic advocates in Egypt and the region have gone by the wayside, revealing that the initial promise of the revolution has receded back into the same cynical positioning that has characterized politics in the region for decades.
Bradley, John R. After the Arab Spring: How Islamists Hijacked the Middle East Revolts. New York: MacMillan, 2012.
In this book, Middle Eastern correspondent John Bradley traces how coverage of the “Arab Spring” has obscured the fact that political reaction masquerades as revolution and reform. Bradley notes that how, on the night the Mubarak regime fell, he predicted the Islamists would take over the country and impose their own agenda on the revolution. Though unpopular at the time, this prediction has proven to be accurate, and that the Egyptian, Tunisian and other risings have, more than anything else, proven that physical intimidation is the order of the day.
“Egypt in Peril.” The Economist, 23 June 2012, www.economist.com/
The Economist’s overview of the situation in Egypt, as it exists today, reveals that the overthrow of the old regime has resolved itself into a power struggle between Islamists and the military, led by the generals. As the Arab world’s most populous country, Egypt and the fate of Democracy there, holds the greatest potential impact for the region. The military has cynically parlayed the issue of Democracy into an increasingly repressive stance toward governance in the country. The Economist calls on the U.S. and its allies to support Muhammad Morsi and the Brotherhood as the best hope for Democracy in the region.
El-Din Haseeb, Khair. “On the Arab ‘Democratic Spring’: Lessons Derived.” Contemporary
Arab Affairs, 4(2), 2011.
Haseeb’s overview of the Arab uprisings offers a comprehensive view of what occurred from a political, social and economic standpoint. The events and circumstances that led to revolution in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere are reviewed using statistical and anecdotal evidence. In this view, the overthrow of the Mubarak regime, for example, is seen as the inevitable conclusion to a tumultuous political awakening, the true effects of which are still unknown.
El-Faki, Mustafa. “Arab Spring a ‘Dry Fall’ for Egypt.” Al Monitor, 2013. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/
The problems that have continued to confront Egypt’s revolution are the country’s history of corruption and “continued tyranny,” which have contributed to the situation as it exists today. Demographic complexity (Egypt has approximately eight million Christians), which does not exist to a similar degree in Tunisia, has also contributed to a loss of ideological focus and of the momentum that began at Tahrir. Furthermore, Egypt faces geo-political pressures, such as in the Sinai and with Israel, that have contributed significantly to the tone of political contention in the country.
Gause, F. Gregory. “Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability.” Foreign Affairs 90(81), July/August 2011.
Western authorities did not advise pushing for democratic reform in Egypt and other key Middle Eastern countries because they believed it would undermine stability in the region. The durability of the Mubarak regime ultimately proved unable to withstand the momentum of democratic change that also rolled over Libya and Tunisia. Middle East specialist Gregory Gause writes that experts on the region’s history are faced with the dual challenge of understanding not only how the Mubarak, and other authoritarian Arab regimes, survived for so long but how they were undermined so rapidly.
“Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring.” The Washington Quarterly, 34(3), 2011.
While many Americans watched the epic demonstrations in Cairo with optimism, others in the region felt a much stronger sense of realpolitik, particularly in Israel. This article’s frank assessment of the Mubarak regime’s fall considers carefully the perspective of the United States’ major ally in the region, where Israeli memories of the Iranian revolution and its descent into theological dictatorship remain fresh. The Egyptian revolution, with its initial democratic promise, holds the potential to seriously complicate peace initiatives on many fronts, including between Israel and Palestine.
Korany, Bahgat and El-Mahdi, Rabab. Arab Spring in Egypt: Revolution and Beyond. Cairo: American Univ. in Cairo Press, 2012.
This comprehensive view of the 2011 revolution looks closely at the group interactions at Tahrir Square, and considers the motivations of the government’s overthrow from the perspective of the Social Movement Theory and model of “contentious politics.” The authors’ contention is that such momentous change in the Arab world’s leading state must have multiple sources, both theoretical and temporal. It is accepted that change in the Arab world was particular to the countries in which it occurred, and not a “pan-Arab” phenomenon.
LaGraffe, Dan. “The Youth Bulge in Egypt: An Intersection of Demographics, Security, and the Arab Spring.” Journal of Strategic Security, 5(2), 65-80.
LaGraffe makes the argument that the Egyptian revolution came about as the result of a wide range of grievances. These complaints were the product of a demographic makeup, the importance of which has been underplayed and misunderstood by the media. This article contends that the country’s “youth bulge” played a transformative role in what happened, leading to the explosion in Tahrir Square and the overthrow of Mubarak. LaGraffe contends that the youth impact offers an example of the cross-section of demographics and politics.
Langohr, Vickie. “Too Much Civil Society, Too Little Politics: Egypt and Liberalizing Arab Regimes.” Comparative Politics, 36(2), Jan. 2004, 181-204.
Langohr contemplates the internal political influences that gave rise to liberalization in Egypt and other authoritarian Arab regimes. She argues that many do not understand that democratization, rather than happening all at once, actually began in the 1990s with the rise of advocacy nongovernmental organizations in opposition to authoritarianism in Egypt and elsewhere in the region. The Egyptian revolution stands as proof that initial projections, made in the early 1990s, that widespread democratization would take place were not premature.
Mahmoud, Mohsen S. Arab Spring in Egypt, Revolution or Chaos. Baltimore, MD: PublishAmerica, 2012.
Mahmoud considers the problems that faced Egypt before the revolution, and which continue to plague the country today, two years later. Economic malaise, unemployment and tyrannical rule have combined to retard the country’s development and threaten the fulfillment of revolution. Mahmoud is primarily concerned with the interplay between the centers of political power that have vied for lasting power. The overriding problem has been, and continues to be, a lack of unified vision of the country’s future.
Rousseau, Richard. “Turkey and Egypt: Scenarios in the Aftermath of Arab Spring.” The Washington Review of Turkish and Eurasian Affairs. November 2011.
Rousseau foresaw Egypt as a potential case study for the resolution of complex and troublesome socio-political issues in the wake of tremendous social upheaval. Egypt, as the largest state in the Arab world, was seen by international players as a “beacon” of comparatively peaceful change. The article offers an interesting perspective on the possibilities inherent in democratic change in the Middle East, and on the vast potential of an influential nation like Egypt on that process.
Spencer, Robert. “Egypt and the Death of the ‘Arab Spring.’” Front Page Mag.com, 4 December 2012, http://frontpagemag.com/2012/
Spencer contends that the Muslim Brotherhood has betrayed the democratic hope of the “Arab Spring” by assuming the kind of autocratic powers that once were held by Hosni Mubarak and his organization. Rather than a symptom of the spread of Democracy in the region, the article holds that the revolution was destined to be about nothing more or less than the imposition of Islamic fundamentalism. As such, the creation of a “Sharia” government proves that change in Egypt did not create a political vacuum but led to a pre-destined conclusion.
Terrill, W. Andrew Dr. “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World.” Strategic Studies Institute, 2 August 2011.
Dr. Terrill considers what would happen in the event of a violent counterrevolution in Egypt, or Tunisia, and what the ramifications might be for the region, and for the international powers that are so closely aligned with Israel and the Arab countries. Terrill warns that the seizure of power by military “juntas” presents the worst possible scenario for all concerned. He argues that the United States is too heavily invested in the region, and that its ties to Egypt’s military establishment will eventually outweigh all other eventualities.
Totten, Michael J. “Arab Spring of Islamist Winter?,” World Affairs Journal, January/February 2012.
Michael Totten explains that the revolution in Egypt is unlikely to result in anything more than just another authoritarian regime. The fact that uprisings in the Arab nations, and their aftermath, have had little in common with each other has weakened the push for Democracy and done little but ensure that Egypt, like its neighbors, is apt to develop along highly authoritarian lines. It is uncertain whether the Muslim Brotherhood will maintain its hold in Cairo, and Totten notes that overly optimistic predictions in the West have not been helpful in aiding the cause of Democracy in Egypt.
