Intuition is basically all about pattern matching and recognition of pattern. It is mostly based on individuals past experience. Furthermore it gives a description of preference and thoughts that come into our mind quickly leaving no room for reflection. When we use intuition in making decision we get an opportunity to evaluate series of options. We assess situation and spot cues which will help us recognize patterns that are based on past experience. Individuals should be ready to with work on incomplete, ambiguous and conflicting information that has no precedent. When leaders use intuition, people will misinterpret the intention of the leaders, hence its implementation suffers.
Reasoning by Analogy
Analogical reasoning entails assessing situation and comparing it to similar situation that occurred in the past. In this time of reasoning we clearly analyze what worked out in the past, as well as situations that didn’t work out. The assessment then gives direction on the choices to undertake and those that need not to be done in the current situation. Analogical reasoning saves lots of time and prevents repetition of same mistakes that happened in the past. The reasoning mostly ignores differences.
This is a process in which we try to give a meaning to an experience when making decision. It’s collaborative of creating awareness that are shared and giving room to understanding different individual interests and perspective,(Hestie,2009). It is a traditional method in which decide on choices and act on it then later try to make sense on the behaviors. In ambiguous cases we sort out conflicting cases and try to separate background noise and key signals. Mostly it is about analyzing and understanding connections among events and actions.
Certainly, groupthink is a thought within deep cohesive in-group, in which its members work towards minimization of conflict and reach agreement without testing critically, evaluating and analyzing ideas.According to Irving it is a situation in which a cohesive group experiences lots of pressure for consistency, hence they work for harmony at the cost of thinking critically. In other perspective it’s when members go along in order to get along.Groupthink arises when groups are cohesive and under lots of pressure. The groups’ belief to be better compared to their rival in the same game.
Chance is a description of something which happens erratically without human intentions and observable cause. Chance is one among many factors that affects decision making. The events mostly occur by probability, yet we view them as if we could control them given more information,(Hastie,2009). In reality the occurrence just happens by probability. The events comes in human mind as an illusion, this is because we view it as if we can control them. The all scenario of chance is about probability which measures the occurrence and outcome of events. It helps in rationalizing the uncertainties of e vents in future. The occurrence can’t be controlled but it affects the decision making.
The Wisdom of Crowds
It entails pooling diverse talents and knowledge in order make a better and dependable decision. The wisdom of the crowds has synergistic benefits. Merging of opinions and ideas creates room for new and options that could not be attained through individual efforts. The problem with crowds is that they fail to make good use of diversity of talents. James surowiecki asserts that groups are more intelligent than individual expert. For smarter decision making from the group thinking, the crowd should be diverse. All areas should be represented. In addition independence of members should be observed,(Hestie,2009).
Arguably, decisions are made with incomplete ideas and knowledge. The sources of information’s are uncertain, the all issues of uncertainty is caused by market conditions, weather, policies and technological inventions and innovation. These factors of uncertainty interact hence causing lots of risk to the all process of decision making by an organization. Therefore this call for filtering of information in order to improve the decision making.In filtering the information it is important to analyze and classify the decisions critically. Classification can be in terms of importance, urgency, availability and its frequency of occurrence.Decision making in most cases are made twice or once therefore filtering of information is important before concluding on decisions
This was committees which help in advising on the issues of making decisions. The ExComm was a body within the United States government .The main function of the official in the body was to advise President Kennedy during the 1962 Cuban missile conflict. It was a panel of twelve members including the president. The crisis instilled fear in the committee hence it became more productive. The group analyzed the war, in fact to some extend became less concerned with missiles and shifted their ideas on avoiding the nuclear war.
Irving Lester Janis (1918-1990) was a psychologist and a professor who spent most of his life carrying out research. He became very famous when je developed the theory of “groupthink”. In this theory he clearly gave a description on the systematic errors that a group makes when taking decisions collectively. He based his analysis on decision issues involving the presidents of America. His base of study was on the Bay of Pigs which was a decision made by President Kennedy. According to Irving most of the groups waste a lot of time to twist the proposal instead of checking on other available options.
In most cases during decision making, the process of sensemaking unfolds to an ambiguous situation. Actions and decisions can become apparent to be something unexpected. The decision can be ambiguous hence it becomes hard to understand its meaning. Ambiguity of decisions leads to flawed actions and poor decisions. Therefore the decisions should be making sense in order to make it achievable and easy to be implemented,(Shapira,2002).
Hastie, R & Dawes, R. (2009).Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making.London: Library of Congress.
Shapira, Z. (2002).Organizational Decision Making.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.