Based on Political Decision Making Models
For many years, the United States and its allies have been hunting for justice. Numerous bombings and terrorist attacks were recorded not just in the United States alone, but also in many countries around the world. Most of these attacks were being blamed against the terrorist network groups that are all connected to one leader: Osama Bin Laden. He was the United States’ and the world’s most wanted person because of the numerous destabilizations and bomb attacks that claimed many innocent lives. He was the leader who provoked his terrorist network group to spread his teachings by spreading violent attacks in the United States and its allied countries. As a response, the country urged its allies to fight against terrorism and made a concrete decision to take Osama Bin Laden down. The decision to attempt of killing Osama Bin Laden was influenced by many factors, which includes providing justice to numerous victims of his inhumane acts and terrors in many nations. The government considered the estimated probabilities of success and failure of attempting to kill Bin Laden. The values of each probability were also measured that made President Obama decide to kill Osama Bin Laden, despite the disagreements from his advisors against his estimated probability results.
President Obama’s Estimated Probabilities of Success and Failure
The decision to attempt to kill Osama bin Laden took a lot of considerations and measurements as to how the operation plans will be successful or a failure. There may have numerous estimations that President Obama regarding the probable results of the decision to attempt to kill Bin Laden. He may have estimated the planned operation would result in a successful one because Navy Seals, especially the Naval Special Warfare Group also known as the DEVGRU, are well trained in this type of military operation. This could be the basic factor that the president estimated as one of the reasons of a probable success of the operation. Along with their intensive training, the Navy Seals are equipped with technological advancement just like the other branch of the US Armed Forces (Schmidle 2011). The Decision Making Model 1 was used in this event as the President may have considered some factors towards the success of this operation.
Before the operation has decided to push through, President Obama already knows that the helicopters to be used in the raid are well equipped. The crews and pilots have been modified to mask noise, movement and heat. Moreover, the helicopter will not be detected by any radar systems of the Pakistani Military, which may jeopardize their operation.
Another thing that President Obama might have estimated as a probable success is the Pakistan’s state of alert against India. The successful entry of the US Navy seals into Pakistan would be easier as their major defenses are mostly pointed east to India. Mostly, these are part of the capabilities and advantages of the US Navy Seals in entering the Pakistan silently until they reach the suspected house of Osama bin Laden.
Additionally, President Obama estimated his successful plan of attempting to kill bin Laden when the CIA Director gave him the report that the agency already traced the exact location of Osama bin Laden including which floor of his house stays.
President Obama may have estimated the success because he knew that this operation would not be pushed unless a concrete plan will be made through the help of his advisers. He knew that the plan would include strategies along with its pros and cons and a concrete plan that will serve as the Navy Seal’s guide in killing Osama bin Laden (Schmidle 2011).
A few years after taking over his presidency, President Obama intensified the CIA’s drone programs, which he might have thought could be an essential part of this successful operation. It was a fact that President Obama may not have the full assumption of this operation to kill Osama bin Laden. However, what he was holding on to is his full trust about the Navy Seal’s capability and expertise. He remained positive that the operation would be one of the most remarkable and successful military operations in the history of the United States Armed Forces.
On the other hand, the president may have also estimated the probable failure of this military operation due to some factors. Since it would be a very sensitive military operation, anything could happen accidentally such as an unprecedented event that might fail the overall goal of this operation. Anything might come up while the operation is ongoing such as previous mistakes by Seals when they attempted to rescue Linda Nogrove, a Scot who was kidnapped by the Taliban group. She died from the blast after one of the Navy Seal tossed a grenade without realizing that Nogrove was nearby (Schmidle 2011). Additionally, it was the first time that Navy seals gone farther to Abbottabad where bin Laden is located. Obama may have been skeptical of what would happen, as the operation requires a longer flying hours over Pakistan.
Approximately, President Obama may have estimated a probable failure of this operation because of the fact that bin Laden's House might not just be a big plain house, but a big booby trap that might kill his military force in the operation. It would be a total waste of money, efforts, and life if that will happen.
President Obama may have estimated the operation's failure when his military advisers were divided as to whether or not the operation would be conducted using an air strike. If the president’s advisers will not have a common plan, it is more likely that strategies may not be strong enough. As the president was unable to predict what exactly would happen, he made a supplemental decision afterwards. Deploying four Chinooks was a last-minute decision made by President Obama, as an assurance that the operation to kill Obama will not be a failure (Schmidle 2011). The same kind of Decision Making Model, which is Model 1 was also used in this attempt as the President considered the choices and actions instead of the possible outputs of the military operation.
President Obama’s Estimated Values of Success and Failure
President Obama estimated the values of success and failure of this military operation against Osama bin Laden. If this military operation will be successful, the values that might have been estimated by the president is the United States’ and its allies’ national security. The success would also lessen the Al Qaeda network’s power to spread terrorism on their target countries. On the other hand, if this military operation will be a failure, the efforts that his administration has exerted will all be put to waste. Not only that the people will be once again frustrated because of the unsuccessful attempt to kill Osama bin Laden, but the people’s money in terms of the budget that was spent for this military operation will be put on waste as well. The Decision Making Model 1 was used while the president is estimating the values of this attempted military operation, based on the government’s options and actions (Allison 1969, 691).
Presidential Advisers’ Sources of Disagreement
The decision to attempt to kill Osama bin Laden was not just the president’s decision. Before he decides, the president of the country normally seeks advice from his trusted advisers. However, before this military operation was brought forward, there have been some disagreements from the president’s advisers argued about. Schmidle (2011) asserts that military advisers began to interrogate the data provided by the CIA about the theory of bin laden's location. They want to make sure that the reports that are being submitted to the president are correct and at its most reliable state. In addition, the mission to kill Bin Laden was planned at CIA headquarters and was authorized under the CIA legal statutes. However, everything was conducted by Navy seals, which some advisers may have not in favor of incorporation of the CIA and the joint special operations group. Another source of disagreement from the president's estimates of success or failures is the coordination with the Pakistani military. Some advisers disagreed with having cooperation with the Pakistani military as the operation needs to be secretly conducted and there was no assurance that plans could leak from the Pakistani militaries.
The president's military advisers were divided after the plan of raiding bin laden was brought to President Obama. Some of the advisers supported the air strike, while others support a raid. Other advisers were not even on both sides, as they wanted to suspend the operation the intelligence reports improved.
One of the military advisers even out spoke his opposing views against an air strike. He claimed, as a reminder to his fellow advisers about the Delta Force operation in 1980. The operation killed eight US soldiers after a disastrous collision happened in the Iranian Desert in an attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran (Schmidle 2011). It was evident that Decision Making Model 2 was used in this event. President Obama along with his top government officials sat down to talk about one of the most important issues in the United States. Rational decision makers were involved to take in control of the decision process (Allison 1969, 698).
The President’s Decision to Proceed With The Exercise
President Obama decided to proceed with the military exercise because he was able to convince himself that all evidence provided by the military and the CIA were enough to take Osama bin Laden down. In fact, the United States has been working on this operation for a number of years before it became a success. He even wanted the exercise to be conducted as soon as possible because the longer plans dragged on; the bigger the risk of information leak may happen. When President Obama decided to push with the military exercise to kill Osama Bin Laden, the Decision Making Model 3 was involved as the president displayed his motivations, perceptions, and his power. His position also maneuvered the principal players from which the outcomes will emerge (Allison 1969, 707).
The decision to attempt to kill Osama bin Laden was one of the greatest decisions that President Obama had to make. Thus, it may be one in the history of the United States. Many factors were considered before the president came up with his decision, as it will not be just a normal military raid. During the announcement of Osama bin Laden’s death, millions of people around the world were shocked, but reactions were mixed. Some people felt that justice was served for those innocent victims who were killed by his terror attacks, while some others said that the government must have captured him alive for some reason. One thing is common among people’s reaction and that is, Osama bin Laden’s name will remain in the history regardless of the legacy that he left or the fear that he gave to many nations.
Schmidle, N, "Getting Bin Laden What Happened that Night in Abbottabad". The New Yorker. ( March , 2014 )
Allison, G , ( 1969 ).Conceptual Models and The Cuban Missile Crisis. The American Political Science Review , 63 ( 3 ) , , 689 - 718